🔮 GPT-5 LIKELY TO DROP THIS WEEK. IS IT AGI?
5 Polymarkets on AI's next big thing
Citing OpenAI insiders, multiple outlets are reporting that GPT-5 will be released in the coming days. But will it be enough to grab the top model slot?
Here's where Polymarket traders think the AI arms race is heading next.
1. GPT-5 Release Odds Surging
On all timeframes, Polymarket odds for GPT-5 to drop soon have been increasing, with a 75% chance that the model is released by Sunday, August 10.
Timelines accelerated following Sam Altman’s appearance on Theo Von’s podcast and press leaks.
Some have speculated that heavy buys from new accounts on the GPT-5 release polymarkets to be insiders buying.
However one such wallet, which was betting heavily on the July 31 release, is now down at least $13k at last check.
Oops.
OpenAI's browser, codename "Aura,” is also anticipated to launch this year. The Chromium browser is expected to contain an AI-powered search engine and agentic functions for task automation like form filling. When can we expect it?
🔮14% chance OpenAI browser released by August 31
🔮74% chance OpenAI browser released in 2025
2. GPT-5 Could Dominate, But For How Long?
Ranking AI models is tricky. Labs are eager to hype their models’ performance by cherry picking results in one domain or tuning the models to specific tasks.
To compare models objectively, Polymarket uses data from Chatbot Arena, which asks users to compare a ‘blind taste test’ of AI model outputs and vote on the winner.
In these “top model” polymarkets, Google’s Gemini 2.5 pro has been a consistent leader, despite trailing OpenAi in userbase and Grok in social mindshare.
Open AI’s GPT-5 is a 50-50 bet to top Gemini in August. But by the end of the year it’s still an open ballgame, with Google in the lead at 43% to OpenAI’s 34%.
3. How Will Competition React?
META has been on a talent buying spree, poaching at least 16 top researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Apple and dropping $14.3 billion on Scale AI.
Yet all this investment has been centered on Meta’s superintelligence effort, and has not seemed to accelerate the timeline for Llama 5’s release.
Apple’s decision to avoid launching its own AI models has led to speculation that it could partner with Anthropic to integrate Claude into Siri. Will it happen?
36% odds of an Apple-Anthropic partnership in 2025
8% odds Anthropic acquired in 2025
4. AGI This Year Less Likely
While Altman said he thinks "AGI will probably get developed” during Trump's term, odds for OpenAI to declare AGI this year have cooled dramatically, down to 10% from a high of 34% in February.
Similarly, there is a 10% chance that any AI model will score above 85% on the independent ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by November 3 of this year.
5. NVIDIA Still the King
The AI lab dogfight has cemented NVIDIA’s dominance at the top of the tech food chain.
Its lead (63% to be largest company by end of year) has only expanded over that of Apple (6%) and Microsoft (29%).
Apple, dogged by its slow progress on AI, has seen the largest drop in odds this year, falling from 54% in March to 6% odds today.
And Google, despite its highly-ranked Gemini model, is only at 1% to be top company at year end due to the increasingly real threats that AI poses to its search advertising business.
Disclaimer
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