🔮 Gaetz Withdrawal Hurt Trump’s Other Controversial Picks

PLUS: Trump First 100 Days Preview

Trump’s cabinet picks fall into two groups: >90% locks for Senate confirmation, such as Elise Stefanik for UN Ambassador (🔮96%) and Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior (🔮95%), and the Iffy Four - candidates with a real chance of not getting through the process:

• Matt Gaetz - Attorney General (🔮 0%) 

• Tulsi Gabbard - Director of National Intelligence (🔮 47%)

• Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense (🔮 62%) 

• RFK Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services (🔮 64%)

On November 21, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz was the first nominee to exit the process following a week of controversy surrounding alleged drug use and sex with minors. In his place, Trump nominated former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi who quickly earned a spot in the >90% club (🔮93% confirmation odds).

Several pundits have argued that Trump picked Gaetz as a “sacrificial lamb” to ease the way for his other candidates. While it’s true that Gaetz was the only pick whose confirmation odds traded well below 50%, something interesting happened since his withdrawal:  

The confirmation odds of the remaining members of the controversial four dropped even further, and they are now all trading below their levels on the day Gaetz withdrew. The largest drop has been in Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation odds, which have dropped about 20%.

The sinking of Gaetz’ nomination confirms that there are now enough Senate Republicans - beyond the usual independent holdouts of Murkowski and Collins - capable of banding together to constrain Trump’s most controversial cabinet picks. What else might they be able to constrain?

Kash Patel to FBI? 

The withdrawal of Matt Gaetz also hurt chances for Kash Patel to become Trump’s second term FBI director (🔮54% odds), though he has not yet been formally announced.

Patel rose from being Chief of Staff to Congressman Devin Nunes and Chief of Staff to acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller during Trump’s first term, among other high profile posts. His book Government Gangsters takes aim at the intel wing of the FBI and other agencies he calls a “sinister cabal of corrupt law enforcement personnel.”

Like Gaetz, Patel has raised hopes in MAGA circles for major shakeups in the intelligence and law enforcement bureaucracies that they believe unfairly targeted Trump. Patel, who has vowed to turn the FBI’s headquarters into a “Museum of the Deep State” and send its DC employees across the country to fight crime, has drawn heavy criticism from some former FBI agents. 

While Patel is still far from a lock - he was floated as CIA director before being passed over for John Ratcliffe (🔮 93% confirmation odds) - it seems like the market is pricing a growing chance that the same group of senators who blocked Gaetz could also throw up roadblocks for Patel.

First 100 Days Preview

In the first 100 days of Trump’s first term, he signed the Muslim travel ban executive order, withdrew from the Trans-Pacific-Partnership trade deal, and nominated Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. 

What will he do this time? Here is a collection of markets that cover actions in Trump’s first 100 days:

Likely 

Deportations: Cracking down on illegal immigrants was the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 campaign and can be done mostly by executive action (🔮 90%). 

Withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty: Trump already withdrew once, and this was reversed by Biden on his first day in office (🔮 78%).

Transgender Sports Ban: Using executive action, Trump could order the federal government to change the definition of gender discrimination under the Title IX civil rights law. (🔮 67%). 

End to the Gaza War: Trump has said he wants Israel to “finish the job” but also expressed hope that the war ends swiftly (🔮 51%).

Pardons: Presidential pardon power is virtually unlimited but historically presidents issue more pardons later in their term: 

• Ross Ulbricht: founder of the Silk Road underground marketplace (🔮 70%) 

• Any January 6 Protestor: 462 have been convicted so far  (🔮 82%) 

• Edward Snowden: Living in Russia since revealing NSA spy programs (🔮21%) 

• Hunter Biden: Joe Biden’s press secretary said he will not pardon Hunter’s tax and gun convictions. Could Trump do it?  (🔮 19%) 

Unlikely

• End Birthright Citizenship: Trump has announced plans to do this through executive order but would almost certainly be challenged on constitutional grounds. This market covers if Trump issues “any executive order or signs any bill into law that aims to limit or eliminate birthright citizenship in the United States” ( 🔮47%) 

• No Tax on Tips: Harris also adopted this policy during the campaign, but it would likely require an act of Congress (🔮 37%) .

• National Bitcoin Reserve: The odds of this fell ~20% following the announcement of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary (🔮 30%) .

• Tariffs on China: Trump has promised to enact massive tariffs on China and other countries. Will he impose a 40% or greater tariff on Chinese goods? (🔮 15%) 

• Eliminate Department of Education: Trump just nominated Linda McMahon to head this department that he is pledging to close (🔮 11%) .

• Ban on Congressional Stock Trading: Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio looks safe for now (🔮 9%). 

What questions do you have about Trump II?  Drop your ideas for new Trump markets in the comments. 

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