21 Comments
User's avatar
Faron's avatar

Doomberg is the best

Faron's avatar

So is polymarket. Breath of fresh air. Propaganda defeated. Truth prevails. I'm spreading the gospel.

Davis's avatar

I’m struggling to see how Xi Jinping benefits from this. China is fully on the sidelines for this one. Yeah they have oil reserves but if they don’t literally take Taiwan in the window you’re talking about and the conflict prolongs they are going to bleed so much harder than America. They can’t even back Iran because they rely on Saudi oil even more than Iranian oil. If the straits stay closed they are left with only Russia while the western hemisphere becomes the dominant oil region.

Jonathan's avatar

You're struggling to see because he's not mentioning jewish power and their desire for the greater Israel project. The war has nothing to do with competing for energy against China, but everything to do with creating a regime change in Iran and giving Israel hegemony in the middle east.

Davis's avatar

Go back to twitter

Jonathan's avatar

Well then go ahead and overthink like a madman who never gets an answer because he can't think with clarity. You're just a fool.

Davis's avatar

Thanks I will

Nuclear Jesus's avatar

The algorithm switched off differing/dissenting views.

!!

Perhaps more alarming is that so few know it is happening.

JasonT's avatar

The war in Ukraine started in 2014, not 2022.

Tatsu Ikeda's avatar

I'm surprised Doomberg missed the tanker insurance angle. Lloyd's of London and other marine insurers didn't just jack up premiums this time. They outright canceled policies, freezing ships in place. Iran doesn't need to sink every tanker. They just need to hit one, like the "Louise P," and the insurance market does the rest. The strait closed through underwriting, not just missiles. I have further analysis up to Day 8 here:

https://tatsuikeda.substack.com/p/day-8-strategic-update-operation

Damon Chouest's avatar

Thanks Doomberg

Can you please advise on your thesis right now that all matters are Anthony cheaper infinitely available all the time straight downwards like you say on all your podcasts?

I’m just thinking you won’t be on YouTube anytime soon based on this?

I’ll be glad to meet you one on one anytime

Thank you,

DC

JC's avatar

I love Doomberg but he has spent the past 6 months telling investors to avoid primary energy (coal oil natgas) producers. I’m happy that he’s been wrong, and it’s not just because of the Iran kerfuffle. I expect more upside.

Potato's avatar

i had no idea there were protests in bahrain

Nimrod Kamer's avatar

I gave a polymarket talk in east london https://youtu.be/bWA-6jHZ88o

Woody Zen's avatar

Relevant data point: I tracked every time Trump claimed "productive talks" with Iran since 2018. Result: 0 out of 5 led to any deal. 0% accuracy.

On March 23 he said it again. The market dropped 31% on the ceasefire contract.

I am building a source reliability database for prediction market traders. Full Trump/Iran scorecard: claimclock.substack.com

Dave's avatar

From today’s NYT.

“Staggering U.S. firepower may have shut Iran out of its own airspace. But local forces can still block and hobble commercial ships in the strait. They can fire at them from land, or place mines in their path. They can hit them with small boats full of explosives. Meanwhile, they are letting their own tankers through, full of crude.”

Why, exactly is our navy allowing Iranian tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested while Iran denies its use to everyone else? Why not enforce the sanctions?

YoungBull's avatar

Markets are pricing Hormuz as a tail risk. It’s not. It’s a base case that hasn’t been acted on yet. Iran doesn’t need to close it — just threatening to is enough to reprice oil infrastructure globally. $CEG $VST $OKE are all bets that physical energy doesn’t care about politics. It cares about flow.

Botch Casually's avatar

Despite being a Shia majority, why would Bahrain walk away from the US? The USN has had a presence there for 50 years. This isn't the first first rodeo for these two adversaries.

BALWINDER SINGH's avatar

I think he is not talking of Bahrain regime walking away from USA but being overthrown and replaced by the population..

Tania Morgan's avatar

This isn’t primarily a geopolitical story. It’s an infrastructure chokepoint problem. When energy systems depend on narrow transport corridors, even partial disruption can reorganize the entire market. The signal to watch isn’t rhetoric — it’s whether flows through Hormuz actually fall.

Adamyates2@icloud.com's avatar

This is AI trash - not Doomberg