🔮 Day One
What’s In Store for Trump’s First Week in Office?
🔮 Today we mark the return of the Trump dynasty with a guest article from @IvanCryptoSlav who writes a Polymarket-focused Substack. Check out his latest predictions for Trump’s inauguration speech.
The big day is here!
No, not Christmas Day. But almost as good. Happy Inauguration Day to those who celebrate the new (and old) president.
Donald Trump returns to the White House today, and he has a jam-packed schedule for his first day and week back at work. Here’s what we’re looking at for today:
‘A Blizzard Of Executive Orders’
GOP senator John Barrasso of Wyoming predicted a week ago the new POTUS would issue a “blizzard of executive orders”. But is that blizzard going to hit on day 1?
Quite possible. 40 or more EOs is in the lead (🔮 60%) on the day 1 market
But a true blizzard, one that leaves you in “shock and awe” as the senator put it, would be 100 orders, right? And if we give Trump a little bit more time — he’ll be at the ‘Starlight Ball’ on the evening of his first day back at work — he could dish out 100 or more EOs in his first week (🔮 62%):
So many things, so little time. What will Trump focus on?
Probably what he campaigned on:
Immigration
Immigration was the key issue Trump was campaigning on. An executive order on deportation on Day 1 looks highly likely (🔮 93%):
If you want to leave more room for error, getting one in the first 100 days is practically a bond:
What about legal immigration?
It was a hot button topic around the new year but neither eliminating the H1-B visa (🔮 5%), nor raising the cap (🔮 14%) seems to be on the agenda in the first 100 days.
Crypto
Those who weren’t sure about whether Trump is serious about crypto got a friendly reminder last weekend with the launch of $TRUMP. It flipped Dogecoin in FDV and will almost (🔮 98%) certainly trade above $15 billion in FDV at the time Trump takes office.
Crypto is reportedly going to be designated a matter of “national priority.” Does that mean we’re getting a crypto executive order on the first day? It sure looks possible (🔮 44%):
And what about the Bitcoin reserve?
Unlikely in the first week (🔮 14%) but realistic in the first 100 days (🔮 54%):
If it doesn’t happen in the first 100 days, it’s still probable to happen in 2025 (🔮 65%). Even a Solana reserve (🔮 19%) or an XRP reserve (🔮 18%) aren’t out of the question.
The Economy
The economy is actually more important than crypto, or so it seemed before we changed to the $TRUMP standard. But tariffs were a big theme of Trump’s campaign — it’s “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” (after love), he said.
Who’s going to feel the tariffs stick first? China (🔮 56%), Mexico (🔮 58%), and Canada (🔮 36%) (unless it quickly decides to become the 51st state) are the most likely candidates:
Businesses worry about “uncertainty,” according to The New York Times, but when it comes to the size of tariffs, we’re still mostly poking around in the dark. Over 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico probably won’t happen(🔮 25%). Neither will, most likely (🔮 15%), a draconian 40% tariff on China, at least in the first 100 days.
Pardoning J6 Protestors
Finally, Trump has repeatedly vowed to pardon those convicted for breaching the Capitol. He said he’d do it “very quickly,” although the “radical and crazy” ones might not get off. That could mean anything between pardons on day 1 (🔮 92%) or within the first 100 days (🔮 99%).
Tariffs, Legislation, Peace
FDR made the 100-day mark a key milestone for incoming presidents. Trump wants to hit the ground running with executive orders, legislation passed, and delivering on campaign promises, foreign and domestic. Let’s see what his agenda looks like.
Domestic Policy
Trump wants to MAGA and his plan on how to achieve that is clear: bring prices down, ‘drill baby drill,’ and lower taxes. One of his staples at rallies was *Trump voice* “no tax on tips.”
There’s a chance it’ll happen but maybe not quite in the first 100 days (🔮 32%):
Another promise — one Democrats will be watching like hawks — was vetoing a potential federal abortion ban. Keeping that promise looked like a done deal until yesterday, but now liquidity has dried up a bit and the market seems unsure (🔮 20%)…
And while he’s at it, Trump might right away decide to create the ‘External Revenue Service’ he promised (🔮 64%).
Foreign Policy
On the foreign policy front, Trump has a lot of issues on his plate. But one of his key promises was ending the war in Ukraine. It won’t quite happen on day 1, but Trump said he’d be meeting Putin ‘very quickly.’ It could definitely happen in the first 100 days(🔮 57%).
Even without meeting Putin, Trump might be able to get the war in Ukraine at least stopped. The Gaza ceasefire was agreed upon even before his inauguration, so why not do it again?
The market thinks it will be challenging but doable in the first 90 days(🔮 35%):
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