🏈 Dark Horses
Four NFL teams seeing the biggest jumps in Super Bowl odds
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Five weeks into the NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs (🔮17%) are forecasted as favorites to win Super Bowl 2025, followed by the Ravens (🔮11%) and the 49ers (🔮11%). So far this season, a handful of teams have seen their Polymarket Super Bowl odds double, triple, or even 7x in the first five weeks of play.
How the Dark Horses’ Super Bowl Odds Have Changed
Their fast rise in the forecast has shocked the market into rerating many of these teams from longshots to serious Super Bowl contenders. Here’s a guide to the four teams who have delivered the biggest upside moves:
Minnesota Vikings
How the Vikings’ Super Bowl Odds Have Changed
Undefeated after five games, the Minnesota Vikings’ 5-0 record is no fluke. They’ve spent more time with the lead than any other team this season, showing dominance on both sides of the ball.
The Vikings’ Super Bowl odds remained relatively modest through the first two games, hovering around 2% despite an undefeated record and win over the 49ers (who entered the game with the second highest odds at 14.7%). It wasn’t until their dominant 37-7 victory over the Texans in Week 3 that they truly entered the national conversation. Coming in as 1.5-point underdogs, the Vikings delivered a statement win that pushed their odds to over 5%, showing they were not only exceeding expectations but also a team to watch.
Underdogs again in Week 4 against divisional rival Green Bay, Minnesota came out swinging, jumping out to a 28-0 lead midway through the second quarter. This decisive win catapulted their Super Bowl odds up to 6%, where they have oscillated since. The win against Houston was a warning shot, but their first-half rout—and ability to hold off the Packers—signaled that the Vikings are a team with real postseason ambitions.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have the Vikings playing complementary football with a top-five scoring offense and defense. Sam Darnold is enjoying a career season, second in the league with 11 touchdown passes while the defense leads in interceptions and is second in sacks.
Minnesota’s offseason moves and relatively good health have paid off. With All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson and newly acquired RB Aaron Jones leading the offense—and 2023 All-Pro TE T.J. Hockenson set to return from injury soon—the Vikings are proving they’re legitimate contenders. SKOL.
Washington Commanders
All aboard the Jayden Daniels hype train. The Commanders may be the most exciting team this season, with their Super Bowl odds climbing from less than half a percentage point to over 3% through five games. The combination of Kliff Kingsbury’s “college offense” and the record-setting 2023 Heisman winner has taken the league by storm.
Jayden Daniels is the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite (🔮 64% odds) and appears to be the franchise QB Washington hoped for with the 2nd overall pick. While the offense has been electric, the Commanders’ defense has struggled. Despite this, their recent defensive performance (5th best in EPA / play over the last two games) shows signs of improvement.
The Commanders rank 2nd in total scoring, 4th in yards gained, 2nd in fewest turnovers, 3rd in first downs and 2nd in rushing yards while leading the league with only eight punts. Winning with a rookie QB is tough; dominating offensively is another story. Daniels’ stats are nothing short of impressive, with a stellar ratio of scoring drives to incompletions. He’s also been a threat on the ground, rushing for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, ranking fifth in the league.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints' season has been a tale of two halves. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, fresh from the Shanahan coaching tree, brought a creative motion-heavy scheme that fueled explosive performances in Weeks 1 and 2, with the Saints scoring 47 and 44 points respectively.
However, the offense has since stalled, averaging just 16.3 points per game over the last three weeks due to tougher defenses and injuries along the offensive line, which has led to a sharp increase in pressure on Derek Carr. Saints’ Offensive Line Pressure Rate:
Weeks 1 & 2: 20.9% (2nd)
Weeks 3-5: 45.6% (30th)
Following their fast start, New Orleans' Super Bowl odds jumped from less than 1% to 4.8%, peaking before a late-game loss in Week 3. Now, on a three-game losing streak, their odds have dropped back to below 2%.
Baltimore Ravens
How the Ravens’ Super Bowl Odds Have Changed
The Baltimore Ravens stand out from the other teams in this group. While their Super Bowl odds are only up about 30% from their preseason mark, they’ve experienced a dramatic turnaround in just the last few weeks. After starting the season with back-to-back losses, their odds initially dropped. Now, a three-game win streak has propelled their odds to the highest all season, doubling in three weeks and tripling from their early-season low.
Offseason changes impacted the Ravens early on—they lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, now the Seahawks’ head coach, as well as key defensive players and offensive linemen. But they’ve found momentum, with wins over the Cowboys, Bills, and a thrilling OT comeback against the Bengals.
Offensively, the Ravens look as strong as ever. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, both top-10 in rushing yards, have powered an attack that ranks second in points per game, first in rushing yards and is highly efficient in the red zone. Despite their offensive prowess, the defense remains a bit shaky, ranking third in run defense but 25th against the pass. New defensive coordinator Zach Orr, with help from veteran coach Dean Pees, is working to shore up the secondary. With their recent surge, the Ravens are now favorites to win the AFC North.
Looking Forward
A Preview of Week 6 and Beyond
Can these dark horses keep their Super Bowl odds in “up-only mode” through the next few weeks? The Ravens and Vikings have navigated tough schedules so far and will look to capitalize on a lighter slate ahead. This should position them well for continued success, especially as they try to stay competitive in their respective divisions.
The Commanders have yet to face a top-tier defense. Their rush-heavy offense will get a true test against the Ravens' stout run defense. If the Commanders are going to make a postseason run, it will likely depend on whether their defense can sustain its momentum in the positive direction. Daniels is a superstar, but will likely face some regression as the season wears on. This week’s matchup against the red-hot Baltimore Ravens will be a huge test for the young QB and serve as a measuring stick game for the team’s postseason aspirations.
Injuries are a growing concern for several teams. Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury late in Monday’s loss to the Chiefs, adding another layer of difficulty to New Orleans’ efforts to right the ship. The Saints also face considerable issues on their offensive line, with multiple starters injured or playing out of position. Their line now features a left tackle playing through injury, a new left guard, a former left guard who’s shifted to center and a new right guard—a patchwork unit that could hinder their progress moving forward.
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