Are the New Jersey UAPs Iranian Drones?

PLUS: Bianco Victory Lap • What’s Next in Syria? • What motivated Luigi? • “Shadow” Fed Chair?

Dec 12, 2024

Since mid-November, dozens of large, unidentified drones have been filmed near critical New Jersey infrastructure such as reservoirs, electrical lines, military bases, and Donald Trump’s golf club in Bedminster.

This UAP story is unique because of the persistent and widespread nature of the phenomenon; the sightings have been confirmed by multiple Federal and state officials, and span at least ten different counties of New Jersey, and some areas of Pennsylvania and New York.

On Wednesday, New Jersey Congressman Jeff VanDrew appeared on Fox News and said the drones were launched from an “Iranian mothership” off the US east coast.

Days before, a market on Polymarket was launched that resolves “yes” if “ the U.S. federal government or its agencies (such as the FBI, DHS, or DoD) confirm that the drone clusters sighted in New Jersey or other parts of the US Northeast originated from a foreign country by December 31, 2024.”

At the time of VanDrew’s Fox appearance, the market was trading in the mid-teens, indicating high skepticism of his claim. It has fallen even further since then following a forceful denial from the Pentagon. 🛸

#BelieveBianco

Two predictions made by Jim Bianco on our podcast recorded Friday have already come true.

Jim predicted that Wednesday's inflation number would come in on the high side, which it did with a reading of 2.7%.
Jim also predicted that Pete Hegseth’s confirmation odds would rebound, which they have significantly (🔮 63%) following a PR blitz over the last week.

Finally, a market was launched on Polymarket to Jim’s question regarding who Trump would announce as replacement to Jay Powell prior to Powell’s term expiring, in effect creating a “shadow” Fed chair. So far, the market is forecasting that Trump will not make Powell a lame duck, at least through June of ‘25.

The full episode is here.

What Motivated Luigi Mangione?

Luigi Mangione, the 26-year old Penn graduate charged in connection with the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, is fighting extradition to New York.

What Markets Say

Which Manifesto was Real? Earlier in the week, multiple documents circulated purporting to be the manifesto recovered from Mangione. Polymarket users were doubtful of a Substack post published Monday called “The Allopathic Complex and its Consequences” but quickly confirmed a shorter manifesto released by Ken Klippenstein on Substack.
26% Chance he Pleads Guilty: Mangione’s defiant court appearance in Pennsylvania caused odds he pleads guilty to plummet from over 60%
Extradition to New York Unlikely before 2025: The most likely scenario ( 🔮66% odds) is that he will face charges in New York in January.
67% Chance he Used Psychedelics: Some have speculated that Mangione used psychedelics to treat his back pain. But the market is skeptical (🔮23% odds) that denied insurance claims will be established as his motive.
Share

What’s Next in Syria?

The Syrian government’s stunning collapse after a decade-plus civil war caught everyone by surprise.

Assad’s odds to remain in power through 2024 dropped from 96% to zero in just over a week as a constellation of rebel groups swept through regime forces, which had been hollowed-out by a decade of war and Israel’s campaigns against Hezbollah. What happens next?